< meta name="DC.Date.Valid.End" content="20050825"> Amendment Nine: BANNED FROM MyDD (but not here) - Ohio Recount News - Bush Margin Could Go UP!

Tuesday, November 16, 2004

BANNED FROM MyDD (but not here) - Ohio Recount News - Bush Margin Could Go UP!

Could the unrepetant left's hysterical call for an Ohio recount actually result in getting more votes for Bush? You bet!

Based on conversations I've had over the last couple of days with well-placed sources at the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections, the big pool of potential Kerry votes in the provisional ballots is returning a substantially lower percentage of rejects than expected.

Turns out that voter education in the media, and the presence of Democratic challengers at the polling places who helped, not hindered, voters in finding their correct precinct where they could cast a provisional ballot, greatly reduced the number of provisional ballots that won't count.

The voter ed and the helpful Democratic challengers (which the BOE says was a huge help) also has reduced the number of spoiled ballots, overvotes, undervotes, and hanging chads, by constantly reminding voters to check their ballots, right up to the point of putting it in the box. All very good news for democracy, and at first blush, good news for Kerry, right?

Mmmm, not so much. All of these efforts were focused on heavily Democratic areas, inner city African American precincts especially. Which means that Kerry's vote is already maximized. There is a much smaller pile of uncounted ballots to recount, thanks to the Democrats' effort to keep that pile small.

And that means....you guessed it. If Ohio were to recount, the largest pile of uncounted ballots will probably come from areas where there were no challengers and less voter ed...Bush areas.

Any recount is thus likely to not only fail to close the gap in Ohio, but may even bump Bush's margin of victory.

Insert Homer Simpson forehead slap.

13 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

LUUUUUCCCCCCYYYYYYYYYYY YOU GOT A LOTTA EXPLAINING TO DO!

10:44 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tim Russo, you've really got to get some therapy, dude. No one has banned you from MyDD. You posted a diary there just yesterday. Its just that they don't want your angry, arrogant, hysteria on the front page. Do you blame them?

11:15 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

therapy? i love that argument. don't respond to the merits of what he's saying, just say he's crazy. that's effective. i wish you panty-waisted liberals had all gone and voted for nader again. just because you suddenly find yourselves in a real party doesn't mean you can issue psyo-therapy advice for the whole world. i hear a volvo calling your name.

11:25 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah I think he needs therapy. He keeps harping on about how he was "banned from MyDD". The fact is that they invited him to guest blog on their front page for a week. Russo spent the week talking down to some imagined Dem 'left wing', and playing a divisive game. After many complaints from the readers, the MyDD editors, so I understand, said Tim, you can continue to post diaries at MyDD, but we don't think its a good idea you stay on the front page. He got in a huff, and sent a message telling the editors that "if you had any guts, you'd stuff it down these guys throats". What sort of attitude is that?

He first claimed he would never post any diaries again, but he is such an attention-seeker that he can't resist coming back to MyDD every day to post a diary which always begins (go figure!) with the statement that he has been banned from MyDD. Do you begin to see that he might need some therapy?

Now, as for this vote counting post, who cares in the long run if Bush wins more votes through the recount? What matters is that a spotlight be shined on the serious problems which now exist in the electoral process. If you are serious about democracy, you need to ensure that due attention is paid to every vote. That's the minimalist position. I actually think that the outcome of the recount will be a narrowing of the gap between K and B, since provisional votes and votes which teh machine read incorrectly tend to go Dem.

11:54 AM  
Blogger Tim Russo said...

could that be jerome armstrong posting there?

take some personal responsibility when you hurl your insults. posting anonymously is just so courageous.

11:57 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No its not Jerome Armstrong. Its your old friend Aruac from MyDD

12:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The point of the recount is to verify the tally. If we find out that it was Republican votes that weren't counted that is still a problem that needs to be fixed.

It isn't about Kerry anymore.

12:06 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"No, Ohio recounts benefit Kerry"

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/16/125855/69

1:11 PM  
Blogger Federalist X said...

tim, the above diary from dKos is a good one. it references attempts to come up with "new standards" for discounting provisionals. the undervotes might help bush, but i think we all agree the provisionals help Ds. they wouldn't be fighting the provisionals like this if they thought they'd improve their margins. any idea on the math out there? how many unders v. how many provisionals?

1:19 PM  
Blogger Tim Russo said...

i must be speaking in code, because no one gets the point.

there are NO GOOD OUTCOMES of a recount in ohio for Democrats. none. period.

that is the point.

we look terrible if a recount goes forward. we look like sore losers, we look like we have lost touch with reality, we look irrelevant. it is a big, fat, no win situation. period.

if there were any hope of a positive outcome, john kerry would be arguing for a recount, instead of rude and insulting bloggers who call people names as they pore through election results commenting on the political dynamic of states they have never set foot in.

it simply does not matter what the "numbers" are, or which ballots come from which counties, etc. the original post was written merely to point out yet another bad possible outcome for Democrats from this folly, when there are exactly ZERO positive outcomes possible.

wake up and smell the coffee, people. please.

1:42 PM  
Blogger young athenian said...

I disagree with some of the line of thinking here, and so here's my two cents. And for the record I didn't vote for Bush, Kerry or Nader, but I did vote.

First, a recount in Ohio is very important because of the increasing number of incidents of error or possible irregularities at the polls. When you are talking about thousands of votes being miscounted (possibly more, we will see as things progress), that is a big deal.

There are already several races in Ohio that could change outcomes if a provisional + absentee recount changes even somewhat signifiantly. One race was within 200 votes prior to provisionals. Remember, this is not just about president.

Second, who cares how this effects the Democrats, or the Republicans. It appears that the Green Party and the Libertarians are the only political groups that care about preserving some shred of a democratic voting process, or else the other two parties would be standing with them calling for a recount. The whole importance of a recount is to ensure that the voting process is fair and accurate. If that doesn't matter to someone, then why even bother voting?

The belief of the people in the power of voting, and the ability to access it fairly and freely, is what keeps this country going. I think that's also why no in the major corporate press is trying to investigate this. Imagine the implications if a president winning by error on a recount that no one wanted to call for? That is what really scares me.

Third, here in Ohio (where I live) there was still a pitiful turnout of voters, even amidst the record turnouts. Here's some stats to give you some idea:

With a population of around 11.5 million people in Ohio the turnout was nearly 70%. At first glance that seems good. But that 70% figure is voters, not people.

About 5.6 million Ohioans voted out of a registered 8 million, with another 3 million still being unregistered. (I don't have a tally for hom many of those are under 18, but that needs to be factored in) That means that almost 5.4 million Ohioans did not express their opinions or have a vote.

Where is that other 1/2 of the state, or the country, for that matter?

Ohio is not alone in this number trend. Many people are either truly disenfranchised with the “system” as it is, or else they just don't care. Apathy is a powerful motivator, no matter what people say. Apathy and fear breed ignorance and can lead to dangerous eruptions within a culture.

Finally, it is one of the most important duties of a citizen to be ever vigilant with our freedoms. Here in Ohio, and the entire US, that seems more important than ever. Would you want someone to stand up and support you if your vote was not counted?

More from the Ohio homefront...chris

2:29 PM  
Blogger Federalist X said...

it seems to me there are really two types of calculus going on here. first, the value of fighting for principal. second, the value of appearance. both can be weighed pragmatically. i thought, and still think, it was a mistake for kerry to bow out like he did. he could have said: "i realize there aren't the votes there. but i also realize i owe a duty to each voter, to make sure every vote is counted. and though the provisionals will not be enough for me to win, none of us win when americans are disenfranchised." simple. the republicans could have screamed bloody murder, but at the very least, there would have been some lack of legitimacy stain on el presidente's 2nd term.

i also believe there is a real price to pay for not having "stuck up" for the voters. but at the same time, i'm not so sure that price is as expensive as the cost of appearing to be a "sore loser" as tim reiterated. i'm just not sure. it is a close issue.

3:38 PM  
Blogger Sharpshanks said...

If I could butt-in here for just a quit sec. One of the VERY BIG reasons we started this site was so people who claim to be "progressive" would realize that they need to stop paying attention to stupid shit. Fed X, I hate to say it, but you are paying attention to stupid shit right now. Ignore the stupid recount and pay closer attention to the bond market. These distractions are out there for a reason you know. Remember the October Surprise everyone forgot?

4:37 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home