< meta name="DC.Date.Valid.End" content="20050825"> Amendment Nine: Another good tip

Thursday, February 10, 2005

Another good tip

A lot of times we get emails about "transitions" or "movers & shakers"... you know the ones, "so and so proudly announces such and such will be joining our offices because we are such a great place." That sorta thing. I'm sure you see one or two a week if you work in structured finance. Once, I paid a lot of attention to the investment banks. Who are they hiring? Who's work is going where now? Turns out thats all crap. You can't read anything from this. Sometimes these guys hire just for the sake of hiring. Other times they leave just for the sake of leaving. Its all random.

BUT, lately I've found the big corporate law firm moves are pretty good indicators of what is coming down the pipe. I remember back in '00 and '01 lots of bankruptcy groups were announcing transitions. Sure enough, the next few years saw some of the largest 11s in history. Recently the pattern I'm seeing is the following. Lots of M&A partners going a notch up... especially M&A partners with Canadian experience Not a big surprise there, we all know there's an M&A cycle revving up. But the Canada thing shocked me a little. Also, IP partners are being minted out west at an increasing rate. So, R&D budgets should be up, which they are, and new patent deals are in the works for sure. Maybe you don't find this useful, but I do, its like getting a few attorney client privileges of your own. I also find it useful to ask around about one of the names. You find out who his clients were, and you get a little extra something to pay attention to when you're scanning bloomberg.