Last election, they chose the alternative scapegoat... homos in Hollywood. But with Brokeback mountain and like coverage ripping the mask off on a lot of that, I think their ability to motivate the electorate to be afraid of gay cowboys is a bit challenged at the moment.
This all leads me to my second favorite guessing game... who will the GOP pin the tail on next? I put the odds low, but rising, that they will pin the blame on their own leader.
As for Mr. Dean and the Democrats. The bar is fairly high after the '94 elections. If Mr. Dean fails to bring about a similar stunning victory (it need not be equally stunning, but it needs to stun), I think the Democrats, though briefly resucitated, will officially be on their last legs. A word of caution, the economy will likely not be helping the Democrats as much as they wish. Indeed, the Chicken Littles of their world will remain out of sync from the day to day until long after the elections have occurred. Mr. Dean, god help us, must show that Democrats are the party of national security.