Losing.

This account from abroad begins with the simple words: "Iraq is disintegrating," and continues variously:

The election was portrayed by President George Bush as a sign of success for US policies in Iraq but, in fact, means the triumph of America's enemies inside and outside of the country. (My emphasis.)

. . . Ironically, Mr Bush is increasingly dependent within Iraq on the co-operation and restraint of the Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has repeatedly called for the eradication of Israel. It is the allies of the Iranian theocracy who are growing in influence by the day and have triumphed in the election. The US will fear that development greatly as it
constantly reminds the world of Iran's nuclear ambitions

Let us be clear that the correctness of the above analysis is not the issue. Only time (but probably not much time) will tell. The facts will be plain enough for all to see, e.g.: Iraq disintegrating in violence; Iran growing stronger and more threatening, the U.S.humiliated by the Iraqi-Iranian alliance; Israel endangered; Israel at war.

What's especially revealing is that the administration has not proposed any alternative future facts which, if they came true, would make a U.S victory plain for all to see. That may mean they already know that no such facts are possible.

Leaders who are both incompetent and corrupt cannot win wars of this kind. Roughly half the country thinks Bush and his administration are exactly both: incompetent and corrupt. If they're right, then the U.S is going to lose this war. No amount of spinning by the administration will change the fact of that loss. Any terror alerts or other distractions will not change it. That the U.S. press tends not to publish analyses like the above will also not change it. That the Democrats don't have a unified position on the war also will not change it. And a poll that asks whether we won or lost will not change it.

But the merkun people will be able to change something: they can throw out the losers and start recovering from the loss.