AIG... troubled waters?

For any of you looking to see some market movement on Monday, here's a thought: short AIG! And then, short every major investment bank in the country. Well, maybe that second idea is a little extreme. But when FT mentions the company's exposure to derivatives, and doesn't mention just how substantial that exposure is, you gotta wonder. What is particularly troublesome about AIG, is their sub's role (AIG Financial) in selling credit protection for the derivatives market. With S&P threatening to cut AIG's credit rating, a chain reaction (think LTCM, but worse) of defaults cascading through the hedge fund industry could ensue. Likely? Who knows. Possible? I'm afraid to say...