< meta name="DC.Date.Valid.End" content="20050825"> Amendment Nine: Prediction Time

Saturday, October 30, 2004

Prediction Time

Presidential Candidate, EC, PV%
Kerry, 291, 52%
Bush, 247, 47%

Surprise States:
Unexpectedly Red - HI, MN, IA
Unexpectedly Blue - AR

Down to the Wire States:
CO & NM break for Bush but only days / weeks after election.

Big Three:
FL, OH, PA, all go to Kerry.
WI goes to Kerry more easily than expected, as does MI.

Dems take House back with tiny majority. Senate stays GOP by one.

Pundit Talk:
George Will (almost gleefully, but with some sarcasm) pins a column the week after saying "The Union has Risen Again". His point is the GOP became isolated by its over-reliance on Southern conservatives, which he characterizes as "slightly extreme." Regardless of his intent, talk of the "Old Union States" and the "Union Coalition" precedes Kerry's Inaugural, and remain a pundit CW for the remaining four years. Despite the talk, surveys reveal Kerry was competitive in almost every state (except for the big sky states, WY, ID, etc.). His margin of victory in three key demographics prove to be decisive: young voters, hispanic voters, elderly voters. This coalition forms the backbone of the new majority, awkwardly referred to as the "New Union Democratic Coalition" for the next 20 years.