< meta name="DC.Date.Valid.End" content="20050825"> Amendment Nine: Game, Set, Match

Sunday, October 31, 2004

Game, Set, Match

George Snuffalumpagus said today on ABC's "This Week" that when he was working on the '88, '92, and '96 campaigns he pretty much knew who the winner was on the Sunday before the election. But this year, says Georgie Porgie, notso! Guess what George, you're not really in the loop anymore. But, in case you're wondering, here are a few things to keep in mind.

(1) Game
Polls are narrowing. This is indisputable. Whatever "lead" Bush has is becoming a "tie". See Ruy's roundup of the tracking polls for a good example.

(2) Set
Bush isn't cracking above fifty in any major poll. Hell even Fox has him in tied in the 40s w/Kerry.

(3) Match
Turnout is going to be huge. I've heard through the grapevine at a minimum there have been 10M new registrations since 2000 (that's 10 more pts ontop of the 2000 totals). And no, Carlos, it isn't true that a large turnout might "still" be good for Bush. The electorate is decidedly more conservative than the public at large. I know this because the "electorate" is a backward looking idea (sort of like likely voters) while public is, in America at least, a forward looking idea. But if you don't agree with such strange metaphysical distinctions, chew on this: registered voters are almost always breaking more for Kerry than likely voters. Tonight's interesting Gallup poll is a good example.

This thing is over. The only question I think that remains is does Bush win WI and IA, making it close, or does he lose them and get blown out?