Game, Set, Match

George Snuffalumpagus said today on ABC's "This Week" that when he was working on the '88, '92, and '96 campaigns he pretty much knew who the winner was on the Sunday before the election. But this year, says Georgie Porgie, notso! Guess what George, you're not really in the loop anymore. But, in case you're wondering, here are a few things to keep in mind.

(1) Game
Polls are narrowing. This is indisputable. Whatever "lead" Bush has is becoming a "tie". See Ruy's roundup of the tracking polls for a good example.

(2) Set
Bush isn't cracking above fifty in any major poll. Hell even Fox has him in tied in the 40s w/Kerry.

(3) Match
Turnout is going to be huge. I've heard through the grapevine at a minimum there have been 10M new registrations since 2000 (that's 10 more pts ontop of the 2000 totals). And no, Carlos, it isn't true that a large turnout might "still" be good for Bush. The electorate is decidedly more conservative than the public at large. I know this because the "electorate" is a backward looking idea (sort of like likely voters) while public is, in America at least, a forward looking idea. But if you don't agree with such strange metaphysical distinctions, chew on this: registered voters are almost always breaking more for Kerry than likely voters. Tonight's interesting Gallup poll is a good example.

This thing is over. The only question I think that remains is does Bush win WI and IA, making it close, or does he lose them and get blown out?

Play by Play of the Sunday Talks

Hopefully, this will be a weekly feature. This week, we're doing ABC's "This Week" w/George Snuffalumpagus.
Stay tuned...
The intro was good, tight race, record turnout, Bush is up in Newsweek poll, but over half say country is moving in the wrong direction. Clips from the Kerry interview, not real good ones though. Looks like Sneaky Pete gets a little tough with JFK. More on Monday.

PELOSI AND FRIST
Highlights:
War
Holy shit! Nancy Pelosi just said there is a study saying 25% of the troops dead or wounded in Iraq would have been saved if they had been equipped with the proper body armor. Holy shit! Response is back to Bush being tough and not wavering. Frist says there are 3000 Al Qaeda dead or captured. Is that true?

Health
I like how Kerry says: "ideer" when he means: "idea". Quaint, New England, but contrary to what the GOP would say, very American. Now George is saying Frist and Kerry agree on health care. Frist is back peddling. Frist promotes refundable tax credits for the uninsured... How much do you think the uninsured pay in taxes?

Bullshit detector
Sen. Frist just said Bush is up 11% on undecideds. Can anyone confirm this? Also, he said Pres. Bush is making "huge gains in the hispanic and bla... african-american vote. He's probably gonna double his share of the african-american vote." If I were a bettin' man, I'd take that bet and give him odds.

Decision: Pelosi, started slow but sizzled in the end. "America is less safe because he is President."

BIG TERR AND LIL' EDDIE
Highlights:
The most dangerous place to be on election day is between a republican voter and a voting booth. - Ed Gillispie, just now. I bet he's right.

Suppression in Ohio
George brings up Blackwell's retreat in Ohio... to Ed G. George says: "Will you abide by the Sec. of State's wishes?" Ed dodges. Ed says there are real problems, Franklin Co. according to Ed has 30,000 more registered voters than people. Terr makes a nice move giving Ed a black voter suppression flier. Ed says the RNC had nothing to do with it. Terr gives it to him. Nice!

Challenges
Both candidates dodge a question on when they will concede a state v. when they will litigate.

Decision:
Terr wins, in a close decision. Because he gave the flier to Ed and Ed didn't bother to read it, Ed loses.

THE PANEL - Fareed, G Will, and Ron Brownstein (who is being incredibly dorky right now).
Highlights
Pretty boring actually. George S is convinced Osama is the surprise. I bet not, and I wonder if George knows he's implying that the Bushies setup the Osama tape. The "surprise" is a secret. There is a lot of chitchat about history, the Chief Justice, and Fareed analogizes between today and Grover Cleveland's re-election. Yeah, it's "exactly" alike, see all the similarities? Fareed says the Big Dog mentioned W overplayed his hand in 2002 and created a Dem backlash. Thats a new perspective that I hadn't thought of before. It makes sense. They end with some mindless chit chat about "outsourcing" registration (Dems) versus doing it in-house, the old fashioned way (Reps). Just so we're clear, doing it "in-house" means, not really doing it.

Choice quote: Americans don't vote with their pocketbooks anymore. -George Will
You think he gets paid too much?

AIG... troubled waters?

For any of you looking to see some market movement on Monday, here's a thought: short AIG! And then, short every major investment bank in the country. Well, maybe that second idea is a little extreme. But when FT mentions the company's exposure to derivatives, and doesn't mention just how substantial that exposure is, you gotta wonder. What is particularly troublesome about AIG, is their sub's role (AIG Financial) in selling credit protection for the derivatives market. With S&P threatening to cut AIG's credit rating, a chain reaction (think LTCM, but worse) of defaults cascading through the hedge fund industry could ensue. Likely? Who knows. Possible? I'm afraid to say...

Politicizing the Little Gift?

Hmm... What do we make of this? From the Daily News:

"...A senior GOP strategist added, "anything that makes people nervous about their personal safety helps Bush." He called it "a little gift," saying it helps the President but doesn't guarantee his reelection..."

Kick this argument in the teeth! Had we not wasted our time in Iraq, there'd be no Bin Laden to worry about. It's time to switch shooters. Let's get someone who aims for the kill.

Prediction Time

Presidential Candidate, EC, PV%
Kerry, 291, 52%
Bush, 247, 47%

Surprise States:
Unexpectedly Red - HI, MN, IA
Unexpectedly Blue - AR

Down to the Wire States:
CO & NM break for Bush but only days / weeks after election.

Big Three:
FL, OH, PA, all go to Kerry.
WI goes to Kerry more easily than expected, as does MI.

Congress:
Dems take House back with tiny majority. Senate stays GOP by one.

Pundit Talk:
George Will (almost gleefully, but with some sarcasm) pins a column the week after saying "The Union has Risen Again". His point is the GOP became isolated by its over-reliance on Southern conservatives, which he characterizes as "slightly extreme." Regardless of his intent, talk of the "Old Union States" and the "Union Coalition" precedes Kerry's Inaugural, and remain a pundit CW for the remaining four years. Despite the talk, surveys reveal Kerry was competitive in almost every state (except for the big sky states, WY, ID, etc.). His margin of victory in three key demographics prove to be decisive: young voters, hispanic voters, elderly voters. This coalition forms the backbone of the new majority, awkwardly referred to as the "New Union Democratic Coalition" for the next 20 years.

Re-elect Clarence Thomas - Judge '08

What would happen if we had some electoral accountability on the bench? Maybe add another Justice and let that person be elected nationally? I'd even be okay with it pending Senate confirmation. And maybe we could do it w/out messing up the Constitution too. The Prez might just say: "Hey, I'm not gonna pick one this time, I'm gonna let the people pick." This would start a "tradition" kinda like two-terms used to be. What do you think?

UPDATE: I mean one post, life-term, just whenever that seat comes up, it gets voted on. So one election, every 20-30 years or so.

Voting Aged v. Voting Eligible

Alot of you will see this weekend, and throughout the week, predictions or analysis of "turnout". When you see the percentiles showing 50, 55, or dare say it, 60 percent turnout, ask yourself this question: Is that percent of people voting aged? (i.e. 18+ y.o.) or Is that percent of people voting eligible? (i.e. 18+ y.o. & not on a felon list, not an illegal, etc.) If they tell you either or, tell me so I can keep track. Thanks!

October Surprise?

A midweek Dept. of Energy report on crude reserves:

"[C]rude supplies had increased by 4 million barrels to 283.4 million barrels last week -- roughly double the increase Wall Street was expecting."

Anyone know where all that new oil came from? And why did distillates contract by 2M barrels over the same time? Reuters gives the overview, you can fill in the color.

Initial

First post here. Election weekend. My plans include phonebanking and a possible trip to see President Kerry in NH. My three year old is excited about that, wish she could vote. If you want to help, go to the Kerry website and sign up. They'll hook you up with some numbers and scripts to use.

This blog will focus primarily on two topics.

1) Constitutional Reform

2) Religion in the Democratic Party

Amendment Nine is a deadletter in mainstream Constitutional Law, it is my hope that one day it will be a fountain.

About Us

Many Amendment Nine contributors are professionals preferring to post anonymously (for various reasons). All will be anonymous by default, though they may reveal their identity when linking to their own publications or articles, should they choose. There have been several requests to give some "biography" of who we are. These will be updated as the writers so desire.

Federalist X
Husband to a beautiful, intelligent woman and father of two great children. Democrat. Southern Baptist. Research, Legal & Financial.

FedFarmer
Father, Husband, Litigator. Democrat by birth, Southerner by the
grace of God.

Mitya K.
Currently a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund based in London. Previously a professor of Mathematics and Statistical Analysis at a major American research university. Fairly non-partisan, Dem leaning, finds current Bush admin. intolerable and reckless.

schenker
Professor at a small liberal arts college. Long-time fan of politics, though rarely active. Biggest concern is the dramatic decline in free-thinking on university campuses.

SharpShanks
Current commodities analyst in NYC. Previously a Jr. VP at a major mutual fund. Political only as a means to an end.

More to follow...

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