< meta name="DC.Date.Valid.End" content="20050825"> Amendment Nine: Oil - Too little too late?

Monday, November 01, 2004

Oil - Too little too late?

I hinted earlier that oil's sudden price drop was odd. Given the correlation between Bush's approval rating and the price of gas, it was less odd but more alarming; perhaps an October surprise? Today Nymex shows oil testing the $50 mark and likely to close under it. The economic analysis I've seen says this is unjustified. Why is the market not worried about the decrease in heating oil as winter approaches? Not sure. According to this article, a "change of psychology" is to blame. Hmmm. Last time we had a change of psychology, I think it was when everyone realized that dotcoms needed to make money, not just issue stock certifactes... this could be the inverse. I continue to get panicky emails from traders and analysts alike. Something is amiss. Look for a much different crude oil supply report in the future. I still don't think this will change the election at all though. Early voting, as I said in the post below, has essentially given the Kerry campaign a touchdown before the game even starts. Gas prices last week were pretty horrible... least, around here they were!