Mea Culpa & Apologia
My predictions were off, way off. I'm sorry. I was suckered in by the polls just like everyone else. I got NM, CO and IA going to Bush right, but I got just about everything else wrong. Of course, it wouldn't be right to just say, I got it wrong. I also need to offer some sort of apology on my behalf.
Here it is:
The poll numbers weren't what threw me off. What threw me off were the stories, now mostly the stuff of urban legends, of massive registration efforts and high predicted turnout. I had heard from insiders in these groups say to me that 10M new registrations were not improbable. I heard a lot about unprecedented turnout expectations, so much that a 120M total vote was conceded; Charlie Cook even suggested 130M! There is no way we are going to lose if 60% of Voting Aged Pop. votes. You hear? No way at all. But only 117M folks voted. I knew the closer we were to 115M the more likely it was we'd lose. 117M is right in the middle, and we just barely lost. I like Donna Brazile a lot, but she needs to be held accountable here, there weren't the numbers that we needed to win. PA was a success, but that was pretty much it. Everywhere else was a valiant turnout fight, but still a loss. I think sometimes Ms. Brazile fails to appreciate the importance of message in turnout. Organization matters, but without a message that spreads like, quicksilver through the camps, the troops won't show up to fight. If you're in charge of GOTV, you gotta demand fire from the pulpit.
Here it is:
The poll numbers weren't what threw me off. What threw me off were the stories, now mostly the stuff of urban legends, of massive registration efforts and high predicted turnout. I had heard from insiders in these groups say to me that 10M new registrations were not improbable. I heard a lot about unprecedented turnout expectations, so much that a 120M total vote was conceded; Charlie Cook even suggested 130M! There is no way we are going to lose if 60% of Voting Aged Pop. votes. You hear? No way at all. But only 117M folks voted. I knew the closer we were to 115M the more likely it was we'd lose. 117M is right in the middle, and we just barely lost. I like Donna Brazile a lot, but she needs to be held accountable here, there weren't the numbers that we needed to win. PA was a success, but that was pretty much it. Everywhere else was a valiant turnout fight, but still a loss. I think sometimes Ms. Brazile fails to appreciate the importance of message in turnout. Organization matters, but without a message that spreads like, quicksilver through the camps, the troops won't show up to fight. If you're in charge of GOTV, you gotta demand fire from the pulpit.
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